How This Bizarre Campaign Redefined the Traditional Coach of the Year Blueprint.

Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple pattern. It commonly acts as a kind of mea culpa. We regret we underestimated your franchise in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic improvement is handed the award. In reality, it fuels an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding superior coaching or merely the most shocking shock.

However the latest competition is profoundly unique. The list of contenders is unusually talented. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning conference champions declining and recent underperformers ascending in unison. During an normal season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in such a turbulent and thrilling season, he's up against multiple other exceptional candidates.

This is how the ideal vote should look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by signal-callers. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been given the opportunity to showcase his rare ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent performance. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system instead of improvising. It is an attack constructed entirely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a consistent helping of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that springs wide receiver targets all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been able to spin magic from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually each decision – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the building with the immense hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme dork but the type of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a normal season, he would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet this isn't a normal year!

The area where his candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are famously fickle. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. But Johnson falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now sits at number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, he has mastered the off-field aspects, which wasn't a given following his initial public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching blend of youth and veteran savvy, he trusted first-timers. From the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. But Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

After an initial hot start, there was a chance that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking consistent ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are evident. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it made it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has fallen away since that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him just one place ahead of other QBs.

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